In the final Democratic polls....
1. What is the gap between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders?
2. Why do you think that Martin O'Malley has such a large number of voters who choose him as the second best option?
3. What prediction do the authors make about "first time caucus goers"?
4. How is Hillary's lead among all voters different among older voters and women voters?
5. What is the margin of error in this poll? So what actual numbers do the pollsters know?
1. 3% (45% Hillary 42% Sanders)
2. Most people are avid Hillary or Bernie supporters, so they would not want to give the other candidate even the secondary seal of approval, so they choose the only other candidate, whose popularity virtually didn't matter at that point.
3. They said they would support Bernie Sanders.
4. Hillary is winning voters over the age of 65 by more than a 2:1 ration, and she is winning women votes 47% to Bernie's 37%
5. margin of error: 4% / Bernie lost by 4 points, technically, and not 3%.
In the final Republican polls...
1. What is the gap between Donald Trump and both Cruz and Rubio?
2. Why does Donald Trump have such a small number of voters who choose him as the second best?
3. How were the poll results different for Trump and Cruz back in early January?
4. What prediction to the authors make about "first time caucus goers"?
5. What is the margin of error in this poll? So what actual numbers do the pollsters know? (in this case, just worry about Cruz, Rubio, and Trump)
1. 5% and 13 % (28% Trump 23% Cruz 15% Rubio)
2. Most people who do not have Trump for a first choice would most likely not have Trump for a second choice either. Also, if someone supports one of the other candidates, they want to support someone other than the front runner as their second, so that their candidate seems better in the bigger picture.
3.Cruz was winning by 3% (Cruz had 25% and Trump had 22%)
4. Trump will win most of the first time caucus goers followed by Cruz then Rubio.
5. The margin of error is 4 %, so the three main candidates who are polling high and close, seem to be neck and neck in reality.
The actual results:
1. What did pollsters have wrong about the Democratic Caucus?
2. Which Republican were pollsters most wrong about?
3. Which, if any, candidates results were outside the range of the margin of error of the poll results?
4. Aside from the two actual winners, which candidates should consider the Iowa resutls to be "a win"? Why is that?
5. Jeb! spent $14.9 million so far to try to win Iowa. How much did each actual vote cost him?
(that's hilarious Jeb!)
1. They said Hillary would have a slight lead over Bernie, but in reality they were tied. (Also Hillary got those cheap coin toss wins with her voodoo or whatever)
2. The pollsters were most wrong about Trump, since they showed him as having a good lead, when in reality, he fell behind to second pretty easily.
3. O'Malley, Carson, Santorum, Rubio
4. Bernie, since he ended with a virtual tie, which was not expected, and in reality is a pretty big W for him. Also Rubio, I guess. He wasn't as trash as people thought he would be. But he still a garbage ahh dude.
5. $2,844 each. Man I wish I could make friends that cheap. No really. I need friends. Help- me. I am doing government homework on a friday night,
No comments:
Post a Comment